{"id":776,"date":"2026-04-05T03:44:51","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T03:44:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.deepdigitalventures.com\/?p=776"},"modified":"2026-04-24T08:33:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T08:33:09","slug":"bank-market-share-by-city-and-state-where-competition-is-heating-up-and-where-it-isnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/bank-market-share-by-city-and-state-where-competition-is-heating-up-and-where-it-isnt\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank Market Share by City and State: How to Find Real Competitive Heat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Data as of April 24, 2026:<\/strong> The latest public FDIC Summary of Deposits release available for this workflow is the June 30, 2025 survey, released September 19, 2025.<sup>[1]<\/sup><\/p>\n<h2>The Short Answer<\/h2>\n<p>Bank market share is a deposit share calculation: deposits attributed to a bank in a defined geography divided by total deposits in that same geography. The hard part is not the formula. The hard part is choosing the right geography and deciding whether a share change is strategically meaningful.<\/p>\n<p>Competition is probably heating up when at least two of these signals move together:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Concentration falls:<\/strong> HHI or top-three share declines in the relevant market.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Challengers gain ground:<\/strong> a mid-tier bank jumps rank, adds deposits faster than the market, or closes the gap with incumbents.<\/li>\n<li><strong>City and state views diverge:<\/strong> a bank looks ordinary statewide but unusually strong in a specific metro, or the reverse.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The middle tightens:<\/strong> several banks cluster within a few share points of each other below the leader.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A single city ranking is not enough. A bank can move from No. 25 to No. 16 in a metro and still have less than 1 percent share. That is a real sales signal, but it is not automatically a concentration signal.<\/p>\n<h2>First, Fix the Geography<\/h2>\n<p>&ldquo;City&rdquo; is useful shorthand for practical market screening, but it is not always the regulator-relevant market. FDIC SOD data can be analyzed by branch, state, county, city, ZIP, and MSA.<sup>[2]<\/sup> Federal Reserve competitive analysis, however, uses local banking markets that may follow MSAs, rural counties, Ranally Metro Areas, partial counties, or custom combinations.<sup>[3]<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>That distinction matters. A city or MSA screen is good for business development, competitor monitoring, and identifying where to look next. A Fed banking-market view is the right frame for bank-merger concentration analysis. If you describe a market as &ldquo;highly concentrated&rdquo; in a regulatory sense, use the Fed market definition and document the boundary.<\/p>\n<p>The practical sequence is simple: use state and city or MSA screens to find anomalies, then validate the serious cases against CASSIDI or the relevant Federal Reserve banking market definition.<sup>[5]<\/sup><\/p>\n<h2>The Metrics That Matter<\/h2>\n<p>For deposit market share work, four measures do most of the work:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Market share:<\/strong> bank deposits in the geography divided by total deposits in that geography.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rank movement:<\/strong> whether a bank is moving up or down relative to local peers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Top-three share:<\/strong> whether the largest institutions are gaining or losing combined control.<\/li>\n<li><strong>HHI:<\/strong> the sum of squared market shares. A market with four equal 25 percent competitors has an HHI of 2,500.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The DOJ and FTC 2023 Merger Guidelines use a structural presumption when post-merger HHI is above 1,800 and the HHI increase is more than 100 points, or when the merged firm exceeds 30 percent share and HHI increases by more than 100 points.<sup>[4]<\/sup> The Federal Reserve bank-merger delegation screen is different: an application generally cannot be approved by a Reserve Bank under delegated authority if a deal raises HHI by 200 points or more to 1,800 or higher, or if the acquirer would exceed 35 percent market share in an overlapping market.<sup>[3]<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>For ordinary market monitoring, do not turn those thresholds into a fake bright line. A 40-point HHI decline can be useful if it coincides with challenger growth and shrinking top-three share. A 150-point increase can still require interpretation if it reflects a merger rather than organic momentum.<\/p>\n<h2>A Concrete HHI Screen<\/h2>\n<p>The table below uses a published top-five local-deposit HHI screen based on FDIC Summary of Deposits data through Q2 2019.<sup>[6]<\/sup> It is not a substitute for a current full-market HHI rollup, but it shows the kind of named-market delta that should replace vague claims that competition is heating up.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Market<\/th>\n<th>SOD Timing<\/th>\n<th>1994 HHI<\/th>\n<th>2018 HHI<\/th>\n<th>2019 HHI<\/th>\n<th>1-Year Delta<\/th>\n<th>Takeaway<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX<\/td>\n<td>Q2 2019<\/td>\n<td>644.41<\/td>\n<td>2,010.78<\/td>\n<td>2,177.85<\/td>\n<td>+167.07<\/td>\n<td>Long-term concentration and recent tightening both show up.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD<\/td>\n<td>Q2 2019<\/td>\n<td>270.06<\/td>\n<td>1,385.88<\/td>\n<td>1,692.36<\/td>\n<td>+306.48<\/td>\n<td>A large one-year move deserves a merger and branch-level explanation.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH<\/td>\n<td>Q2 2019<\/td>\n<td>448.59<\/td>\n<td>1,590.13<\/td>\n<td>1,480.44<\/td>\n<td>-109.69<\/td>\n<td>Still much more concentrated than 1994, but the latest move was loosening.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA<\/td>\n<td>Q2 2019<\/td>\n<td>602.22<\/td>\n<td>828.81<\/td>\n<td>789.16<\/td>\n<td>-39.65<\/td>\n<td>A large market can become less concentrated even while national consolidation continues.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD<\/td>\n<td>Q2 2019<\/td>\n<td>317.00<\/td>\n<td>830.78<\/td>\n<td>815.50<\/td>\n<td>-15.28<\/td>\n<td>The long-term story and the current-year story point in different directions.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The useful insight is not that one table settles the question. It is that market-share claims need a date, a geography, and a delta. &ldquo;Bank A is No. 1&rdquo; is a ranking. &ldquo;HHI rose 167 points while top-three share expanded and a merger closed&rdquo; is an argument.<\/p>\n<h2>What 2025 SOD Signals Look Like<\/h2>\n<p>The June 30, 2025 SOD release also shows why city and state screens should be read together. Pinnacle Financial Partners reported several SOD-based market movements that are useful examples, even though each still needs a full-market HHI rollup before being labeled a concentration change.<sup>[7]<\/sup><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Market<\/th>\n<th>2025 SOD Signal<\/th>\n<th>State Comparison<\/th>\n<th>Interpretation<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Nashville-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN<\/td>\n<td>No. 1 with $21.34B in deposits and 21.72 percent share, up from $19.7B and 21.2 percent in 2024.<sup>[8]<\/sup><\/td>\n<td>No. 2 in Tennessee with 12.94 percent share.<\/td>\n<td>Local leadership strengthened. This is not a &ldquo;heating up&rdquo; example at the top unless challengers also gained below the leader.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Atlanta, GA<\/td>\n<td>No. 23 with $1.06B in deposits, 0.43 percent share, and $314.68M added.<\/td>\n<td>No. 31 in Georgia with 0.30 percent share.<\/td>\n<td>The statewide figure hides targeted metro momentum, but the share is still too small to move market concentration by itself.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Washington, D.C. \/ Northern Virginia<\/td>\n<td>No. 16 with $2.19B in deposits, 0.70 percent share, and $1.20B added.<\/td>\n<td>Virginia rank and share look more modest than the local deposit growth signal.<\/td>\n<td>This is a watchlist market: a challenger is becoming more visible locally before it matters statewide.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Knoxville, TN<\/td>\n<td>No. 3 with $3.36B in deposits, 12.65 percent share, and $509.22M added.<\/td>\n<td>Part of broader Tennessee strength, but the rank change is local.<\/td>\n<td>Here the competitive heat is around the leading tier, not just the long tail.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The point is the contrast. Nashville looks like durable local leadership. Atlanta and Washington look like challenger momentum below the leaders. Knoxville looks like a top-tier contest. Treating all four as the same kind of &ldquo;growth&rdquo; would flatten the actual market structure.<\/p>\n<h2>A Better Workflow for Bank Market Share by City and State<\/h2>\n<p>Use this order:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Start with the state.<\/strong> Identify statewide rank, deposit base, and peer set.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Drop into city, county, or MSA screens.<\/strong> Look for places where local rank differs sharply from statewide rank.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Compute HHI and top-three share over time.<\/strong> Use at least three SOD years so one branch sale or acquisition does not dominate the read.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Separate leader strength from challenger heat.<\/strong> A growing leader can make a market less competitive. A growing No. 12 bank may be strategically interesting without changing HHI.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Validate serious cases against Fed banking markets.<\/strong> Do this before using regulatory language or merger-review thresholds.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>That workflow removes most false positives. It also makes the analysis more useful for different teams. Corporate development wants contested markets and possible entry points. Bank strategy teams want markets where incumbents are losing local grip. Investors want to know whether a bank&#8217;s growth is broad franchise strength or a few local wins doing most of the work.<\/p>\n<h2>Where Analysts Get Misled<\/h2>\n<p>The most common mistake is reading a rank as momentum. A bank can stay No. 1 while losing share, or move up several places while remaining too small to affect concentration. The second mistake is mixing geographies without saying so. A city ranking, an MSA ranking, and a Fed banking-market HHI may all be true and still answer different questions.<\/p>\n<p>The third mistake is using HHI as the only signal. HHI is powerful because it summarizes the whole distribution, but it can hide the story. If top-three share is flat while HHI falls, the middle of the market may be getting more competitive. If HHI rises because two small banks merged, the strategic meaning is different from a dominant incumbent taking organic share.<\/p>\n<h2>Using Banking Data Without Overbuilding the Project<\/h2>\n<p>If you only need one number, the FDIC tools are enough. If you need to repeat the analysis across many markets, a structured screen helps keep bank lists, peer sets, and geographies consistent. The <a href='https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/'>bank directory by city and state<\/a> is a useful starting point for building the peer list before you move into SOD, HHI, and market-structure work.<\/p>\n<p>The standard should be simple: every market-share claim should identify the data date, the geography, the metric, and the direction of change. Without those four pieces, the analysis is usually just a ranking with extra words around it.<\/p>\n<h2>FAQ<\/h2>\n<h3>How is bank market share calculated?<\/h3>\n<p>Bank deposit market share is calculated by dividing a bank&#8217;s deposits in a defined geography by total deposits for all included institutions in that same geography. The result changes when the geography changes.<\/p>\n<h3>What data source should I use for bank market share?<\/h3>\n<p>Use the FDIC Summary of Deposits for branch-level deposit data and deposit market share reports. The survey is collected annually as of June 30 and supports geographic analysis across branch, city, county, state, ZIP, and MSA views.<\/p>\n<h3>What is HHI in banking?<\/h3>\n<p>HHI, or the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, is the sum of squared market shares. It is used in bank-merger competitive analysis because it captures both the size of the largest firms and the distribution of the rest of the market.<\/p>\n<h3>Why do city rankings not match Fed banking markets?<\/h3>\n<p>City rankings are practical screens based on branch locations or common market labels. Fed banking markets are defined for competitive analysis and may include parts of MSAs, multiple counties, partial counties, or other local economic boundaries.<\/p>\n<h3>What counts as competition heating up?<\/h3>\n<p>The strongest evidence is a combination of falling concentration, declining top-three share, rising challenger rank, and city-state divergence. One signal alone is a prompt for more work, not a conclusion.<\/p>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/www.fdic.gov\/news\/press-releases\/2025\/fdic-releases-results-summary-deposits-annual-survey'>FDIC 2025 Summary of Deposits release<\/a> &#8211; confirms June 30, 2025 SOD release date and scope.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/catalog.data.gov\/dataset\/market-share-reports'>Data.gov, FDIC Market Share Reports<\/a> &#8211; describes FDIC deposit market share reports and June 30 SOD basis.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/frrs\/guidance\/frequently-asked-questions-regarding-the-competitive-review-process-for-bank-acquisitions-mergers-and-other-transactions.htm'>Federal Reserve competitive review FAQ<\/a> &#8211; explains HHI, local banking markets, delegation screens, and market-definition logic.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/atr\/merger-guidelines'>DOJ and FTC 2023 Merger Guidelines<\/a> &#8211; source for HHI and market-share structural presumption thresholds.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/bank-supervision\/banking-markets-and-hhi'>St. Louis Fed, Banking Markets and HHI<\/a> &#8211; describes CASSIDI and banking-market concentration analysis.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/www.cato.org\/blog\/why-there-has-been-no-great-reversal-us-banking'>Cato, HHI table compiled from FDIC SOD Q2 2019<\/a> &#8211; source for the named-market HHI screen used as an example.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/www.pnfp.com\/about-pinnacle\/media-room\/news-releases\/pinnacle-is-the-no-1-bank-in-the-nashville-msa-by-deposits-for-the-eighth-consecutive-year-holds-no-2-in-tennessee-grows-market-share-in-22-of-27-msas\/'>Pinnacle 2025 SOD market-share release<\/a> &#8211; source for 2025 Nashville, Atlanta, Washington, Knoxville, and other market examples.<\/li>\n<li><a href='https:\/\/pinnacle.q4ir.com\/news\/press-releases\/press-release\/2024\/Pinnacle-is-the-No.-1-Bank-in-the-Nashville-MSA-by-Deposits-for-the-Seventh-Consecutive-Year-Holds-No.-2-in-Tennessee-Grows-Deposits-in-21-of-27-MSAs\/default.aspx'>Pinnacle 2024 SOD market-share release<\/a> &#8211; source for prior-year Nashville comparison.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Data as of April 24, 2026: The latest public FDIC Summary of Deposits release available for this workflow is the June 30, 2025 survey, released September 19, 2025.[1] The Short Answer Bank market share is a deposit share calculation: deposits attributed to a bank in a defined geography divided by total deposits in that same [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"Bank Market Share by City and State: Finding Heat","_seopress_titles_desc":"Compare bank market share by city, state, MSA, and Fed banking market using SOD, HHI, top-share movement, and challenger growth signals.","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=776"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2146,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776\/revisions\/2146"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/banking.deepdigitalventures.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}