Early Warning Scanner
The Early Warnings page (Pro feature) scans all institutions and flags those exhibiting pre-failure distress signals.
The 13 Signals
The scanner evaluates each bank on thirteen risk indicators — seven core signals from quarterly financials, plus six extended signals from Call Report detail data:
Core Signals
- Texas Ratio — Noncurrent loans / (equity + loan loss reserves). Above 100% is critical.
- NPL Trajectory — Rising non-performing loan ratio over 3+ consecutive quarters.
- Earnings Deterioration — ROA negative for 2+ of the last 4 quarters.
- Rapid Asset Growth — Year-over-year asset growth above 20%, correlated with future distress.
- Funding Concentration — Loan-to-deposit ratio above 100%, signaling reliance on non-core funding.
- Capital Adequacy — Equity-to-assets ratio below 8%, approaching under-capitalized territory.
- Charge-off Acceleration — Net charge-off rate above 1% and rising over consecutive quarters.
Extended Signals (from Call Report Detail)
- CRE Concentration — Commercial real estate loans exceeding 300% of total capital (2006 interagency guidance threshold).
- Construction Concentration — Construction & land loans exceeding 100% of total capital.
- Brokered Deposit Reliance — Brokered deposits above 10% of total deposits.
- Delinquency Migration — 30–89 day past-due loans growing while NPL ratio remains flat — early pipeline deterioration.
- Deposit Outflow — Total deposits declining more than 10% year-over-year.
- Derivatives Exposure — Derivatives notional exceeding 500% of total assets.
Severity Tiers
Each flagged bank receives a weighted composite score (0–100) and severity classification:
- Critical — Score ≥ 60, immediate concern.
- High — Score ≥ 35.
- Moderate — Score ≥ 15.
- Watch — Score below 15, worth monitoring.
Using the Results
Click any flagged bank to see exactly which signals fired, the actual vs. threshold values, and a description of why each matters. You can export the results to CSV for further analysis.